The verdict came down in November 2025: Utra-Processed Foods are no longer a simple nutritional debate, but a global public health issue. With his new series of three articles, The Lancet doesn't just sound the alarm - it proposes an arsenal of public policies that will redefine the rules of the game for the entire food chain. The message is clear: the «complex processes + sensory additives + maximum profitability» model is entering a zone of regulatory turbulence. Between marketing restrictions, targeted taxes and exclusion from public procurement markets, the time has come to take strategic action, not just a watchful eye. Here's a look at the ingredients ecosystem: what exactly does this series say, what policies are on the horizon, and above all - how can this constraint be turned into a competitive advantage?
Nova 4: anatomy of an industrial model in the spotlights
Nova classification doesn't just measure nutrients - it assesses the scope and purpose of the transformation. And that's where things get tricky for the industry.
The four Nova groups (quick reminder)
- Group 1 raw or minimally processed foods (fruit, vegetables, meat, milk)
- Group 2 culinary ingredients (oils, sugar, salt)
- Group 3 simple processed foods (bread, cheese, preserves)
- Group 4 the famous ultra-processed foods
What puts you in Group 4
The ultra-processed foods (or AUT/UPF) are characterised by :
- Composition Substances derived from food (modified starches, protein isolates, refined oils, syrups) combined with sensory additives (emulsifiers, sweeteners, flavourings, colourings).
- Purpose optimised matrices to replace the first three Nova groups, maximise palatability and profitability
- Results ready-to-eat products containing little or no wholefoods
What's at stake for suppliers? It's not that an ingredient or process becomes «banned» overnight. It's just that the combination processes + ingredients + positioning bring entire categories under the regulatory microscope.
What the Lancet says: three articles, one massive finding
Article 1: The ultra-transformed tsunami is real
The figures speak for themselves:
- Share of ultra-processed foods in energy intake: from 9 % (Iran) to 60 % (United States)
- Spectacular growth in emerging countries: +60 % sales in Uganda between 2007 and 2022
- In the United States and the United Kingdom, the AUT model is already dominant (>50 % of inputs), and growth is levelling off... due to a lack of room for improvement
The scheme is spreading rapidly to Latin America, Africa and Asia - the priority growth areas for ingredient suppliers.
The toxic triad of ultra-processed foods
The Lancet series consolidates three mechanistic hypotheses:
- Food movement Ultra-processed foods are gradually replacing Nova foods 1-3
- Nutritional degradation :
- Unbalanced profiles (energy density, free sugars, poor quality fats)
- Destroyed matrices encouraging over-consumption (hyper-palatability)
- Deficiency in protective compounds (fibre, polyphenols)
- Increased exposure to contaminants and additive mixtures with poorly characterised effects
- Health impact : association with obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, certain cancers, depression, all-cause mortality
The statistical verdict: out of 104 studies examined, 92 showed an association between a diet rich in ultra-processed foods and at least one risk factor for chronic disease. The meta-analyses reveal orders of magnitude of risk comparable - but in the opposite direction - to the protective effects of the Mediterranean diet.
Article 2: The business model that is shaking up public health
Here are the disturbing facts:
- Between 1962 and 2021: on 2,900 billion dollars of dividends paid by the agri-food sector, more than half comes from AUT manufacturers
- The 8 giants (Nestlé, PepsiCo, Unilever, Coca-Cola, Danone, Femsa, Mondelez, Kraft Heinz): 42 % of employees in the sector
- World TUE market : 1.9 billion in 2023
This profitability feeds a self-reinforcing circle: R&D, massive marketing, structured lobbying, influence on standards. For an ingredient supplier, the message is clear: the subject of TUE is no longer a scientific debate, it is an issue of governance of food systems.
Article 3: From HFSS to «HFSS + UPF» - the regulatory shift
Until now, policies have targeted products high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS for High Fat Salt Sugar). Problem: a «reformulated» product can remain ultra-processed, with its modified matrices and sensory additives.
The new paradigm : maintain existing HFSS policies + add UPF markers (additives, derived substances) in nutritional profiles and regulatory tools.
Upcoming policies: four fronts for action
Front 1: Labelling and information
Already in place :
- Chile, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina: front warning labels for non-compliant products
- OPS/PAHO nutritional profile: combines nutritional thresholds + AUT markers (e.g. presence of intense sweeteners)
Front 2: Marketing and distribution restrictions
- Ban on marketing aimed at children
- Exclusion from schools (already in place in several Latin American countries)
- Brazil target of 90 % of Nova 1 food in school catering by 2026
Front 3: Taxation and incentives
- Taxes on sugary drinks and other ultra-processed foods
- Reallocation of revenue to fresh and minimally processed foods
- Redirecting agricultural subsidies
Front 4: Regulation of lobbying
- Strict rules on conflicts of interest
- Exclusion of ultra-processed food manufacturers from certain areas of governance
- Limiting self-regulation
The Lancet editorial goes further: treat TUEs as a «global health issue», with a coordinated response comparable to that deployed for tobacco.
Risk-opportunity matrix for ingredient suppliers
Risks to be mapped as a matter of urgency
Customer dependency risk«
- Concentration on a few large groups structured around ultra-processed foods
- Indirect exposure via taxes, marketing restrictions, exclusion from public contracts
Regulatory risk
- Gradual integration of AUT markers into nutritional profiles
- Possible reclassification of certain additives or combinations
- Greater transparency on ingredients and processes
Reputational risk
- Association of certain ingredients (intense sweeteners, texturisers, complex flavours) with the AUT universe
- Tension between CSR rhetoric and the reality of applications
Opportunities to seize
The series calls for «Preserve, protect and promote diets based on unprocessed or minimally processed foods.». B2B translation :
- Culinary facilitation solutions for lightly processed «ready-made» dishes
- Intelligent conservation technologies that extend shelf life without resorting to ultra-processing (fermentation, suitable packaging)
- Strategic reformulation simplified matrices, limiting the stacking of sensory additives
Self-assessment grid: where do you stand?
| Dimension | Warning signal | Key question | Recommended action |
| Product portfolio | >50% of CA on typical AUT applications | How much of my turnover depends on snacks, sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods? | Nova mapping of applications, identification of exposed segments |
| Regulated environments | Customers targeted by restrictions | Are my ingredients mainly used in products for children, schools and public markets? | Co-development of recipes below the nutritional profile thresholds |
| Customer focus | Dependence on 2-3 major TUEs | Am I overexposed to giants whose model is based on TUEs? | Diversification into collective catering, Nova players 1-3 |
| Sourcing | Ultra-standard amenities | Are my raw materials part of various supply chains or commodities? | Exploring partnerships closer to wholefoods |
Three strategic takeaways
1. The nature of the debate has changed
We're no longer just talking about nutrients, but about a transformation system. The combination of processes + ingredients + marketing becomes a target for public policy.
2. Profitability ≠ sustainability
The 2,900 billion in dividends shows that the AUT model remains financially solid. But regulatory and reputational exposures are increasing, particularly in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.
3. Ingredients as transition facilitators
The series stresses the need to make food as unprocessed as possible accessible, practical and attractive. Suppliers capable of providing solutions in this area have a key role to play.
FAQ: what you need to know about ultra-processed foods
Do TUEs «cause» chronic diseases?
The authors remain cautious about the strict causal language, but the body of evidence (>100 cohort studies, meta-analyses, randomised trials, mechanistic studies) is considered sufficiently solid to consider the ultra-processed diet as a "causal" factor. major driver numerous pathologies.
Are all innovations being called into question?
No. The series questions a model in which processing is mainly used to create highly palatable, highly profitable substitutes. Instead, it recommends innovations that make Nova 1-3 foods easier to access, more convenient and safer, without piling on the additives typical of TUEs.
Will policies target ingredients directly?
The instruments (nutritional profiles, labelling, taxes, restrictions) are targeted at finished products. But their implementation is based on criteria linked to the formulation - and therefore indirectly to the ingredients. Suppliers are involved via customer specifications.
What about lobbying and conflicts of interest?
The third article stresses that the political activity of the AUT industry (lobbying, self-regulation, scientific influence) is one of the main obstacles to action. For a B2B player, scientific credibility and transparency of partnerships become strategic assets.
References
- Monteiro CA et al. Ultra-processed foods and human health: the main thesis and the evidence. The Lancet. 2025; published online 18 November.
- Scrinis G et al. Policies to halt and reverse the rise in ultra-processed food production, marketing, and consumption. The Lancet. 2025; published online 18 November.
- Baker P et al. Towards unified global action on ultra-processed foods: understanding commercial determinants, countering corporate power, and mobilising a public health response. The Lancet. 2025; published online 18 November.
- The Lancet Editorial. Ultra-processed foods: time to put health before profit. The Lancet. 2025; published online 18 November.
- Official infographic of the series Ultra-Processed Foods and Human Health. The Lancet, 2025.
All available on the official AUT series page.